【主讲】Ying Wu (富布赖特学者)

【时间】2010年10月19日 (周二) 10：30-12：00

【地点】best365中国官方网站楼801室

【语言】英文

【摘要】In an economy dominated by labor-intensive processing trade (such as China), real exchange rate appreciation can possibly increase rather than decrease net exports. As the import content of processed exports (a proxy for dependence on processing trade) increases in its continuum, the stable equilibrium for the exchange rate and price level eventually yields to a saddle-point equilibrium: for a given exchange rate, unless the initial inflation (or deflation) rate is uniquely moderate, either the depreciation-inflation spiral or the appreciation-deflation spiral could dominate. Monetary and fiscal policies can help a processing-trade dependent country in its structural transition from excessive engagement in processing trade (the saddle-point equilibrium) to a more sustainable and balanced trade structure.